By Michael Capuano
FAIR
Last week, FAIR’s marquee 2025 report estimating the illegal alien population in the U.S. was updated to include, at the end, a state-by-state breakdown based on new data. FAIR’s study was the first to account for the Census Bureau bombshell showing millions more illegal aliens live in the U.S. than previously thought. It is now clear from this update that the 2021-2024 wave of illegal immigration had its strongest impacts in places far from the border and least equipped to handle them.
Estimating each state’s illegal alien population in 2025 meant challenging previous assumptions because, as the report details, illegal immigration itself drastically changed over the past few years. For example, a border wall, high prices, and a slow economy made traditional gateway California a much less attractive destination for illegal aliens than in past decades. Permissive policies drew illegal aliens from across the entire world, rather than mostly from nearby countries like Mexico, and these new arrivals were less drawn to established illegal alien communities.
At the same time, the Biden administration was flying illegal aliens directly into cities in the interior of the U.S. at taxpayer expense. Administration actions like the abuse of immigration parole authority made it easier for illegal aliens to work outside well-established destinations. The result was that newly arrived illegal aliens had far more options, and many unsuspecting cities and towns across the U.S. suddenly found themselves overwhelmed.
Because of these changes, entirely new methodology was needed to estimate the illegal alien population by state. FAIR weighted how fast the foreign-born population grew from 2021-2025 in each state when estimating their current illegal alien populations. This also required separating Biden administration-era illegal aliens from earlier arrivals in our data because the places they ended up in the U.S. were vastly different. These new state population estimates are not directly comparable with earlier years because of the new methodology. However, this is only because our estimates have improved as the proverbial dust settles from the disastrous 2021-2024 illegal migration wave.
While “sanctuary cities” took in many of the most recent arrivals, our estimates show surprisingly high populations in areas far outside these bastions of non-cooperation. Florida, for example, has strong state pro-enforcement policies and requires local governments to cooperate with immigration enforcement. Unfortunately for Floridians, it was also the largest entry point for flights carrying inadmissible illegal aliens allowed in by the Biden administration. This has caused its illegal alien population to swell compared to traditional gateways like New York and California. Other notable states moving higher up the ranking include Georgia, the site of the Laken Riley tragedy, and Indiana, where thousands of Haitian migrants overwhelmed the small town of Logansport.
The overall estimate is a snapshot of January 2025, and it represents the all-time high of the illegal alien population in the U.S. after an unprecedented wave. Stronger enforcement has largely stopped the influx for now, and there are early indications that deportations (including self-deportations) may be reversing years of uncontrolled growth. Without real legislative action, however, that tide could come roaring back like a tsunami.
