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The second set of redistricting maps seems likely to pass based on everything I have heard from Iowa lawmakers. And this map made one huge shift in the congressional outlook for Iowa.

Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks would be in the Third District if she does not relocate. This could significantly shake up what was going to be a highly competitive primary race between State Sen. Zach Nunn, conservative grassroots activist Gary Leffler, Nicole Hasso and former State Rep. MaryAnn Hanusa.

Hanusa, however, has not been included in the Third District in either of the first two sets of maps. She could still primary Congressman Randy Feenstra, who certainly deserves a primary, in the Fourth District.

As for the others, it is possible they will all retreat and allow Miller-Meeks to challenge Democrat Congresswoman Cindy Axne. But that has the makings of a fatal mistake for the GOP.

We’ll work backward and start small before finishing big. The small idea in my mind is that Miller-Meeks stands zero chance of beating Axne in the Third District. Not because Axne is impressive, but Miller-Meeks does nothing to excite the Republican base. No matter how good of a speech she might be able to give at a Trump rally, it doesn’t change the facts she voted to certify the election, voted for Liz Cheney to remain in leadership, attended a climate change conference for Republicans in Colorado, voted for the Jan. 6 Commission, voted for Red Flag gun language not once but twice, called President Donald J. Trump a liar and corrupt in 2016…well, you get the idea.

The Third District’s biggest problem has been finding a candidate who excites the Republican base. It turns out, not being Cindy Axne isn’t good enough in the Third District.

If Miller-Meeks is the Republican nominee in the Third District, I’d put my money on Democrats having control of two congressional seats for at least a couple of years.

But, more than that, we’re going to find out which of these candidates in the Third District primary truly believes they were called to run for this seat.

Here is what I tell everyone — when someone runs for office, they’d better be doing it because they felt lead and called by God to do so.

And, in this case, God’s calling isn’t contingent upon which district Miller-Meeks calls home.

What Republican establishment types will say is, we don’t primary incumbent Republicans out of respect.

Tell that to Congressman Steve King.

The rules changed in 2020. Well, the rules should’ve changed for the conservatives anyway because the establishment showed it didn’t apply to them, so it shouldn’t apply to us.

There are good people running for the GOP nomination in the Third District. People who I trust do believe they were led and called by God to serve their friends, family and neighbors in Congress. That calling comes from a higher power than the GOP, I hope they listen to it.

My advice to Sen. Nunn, Leffler and Hasso — stay in the race regardless of what Miller-Meeks does.

This is not her seat. It is not her district. She has not earned a free pass to the nomination. Providing a free pass to the nomination is rewarding a brief congressional career that doesn’t deserve a free pass to the nomination.

Iron sharpens iron. Do what you are called and led to do by God, not the GOP.