The road to hell is paved with good intentions. But, intentions do not matter, only outcomes matter. The outcome of SF 638 will undoubtedly increase smoking in our state, causing more people to die from preventable diseases. My name is Jason Semprini. I am an economist and lifelong Iowan.
In ten years, Iowa will have the highest cigarette smoking rate in America. This is especially troubling news in the context of Iowa’s fastest growing cancer rate. But this isn’t just about cancer. Smoking cigarettes is the number one cause of preventable death and disease. There are thousands of chemicals in cigarettes and probably even more reasons to quit smoking. Unfortunately, quitting can be hard. Ask anyone who has tried.
As Iowans, we can and should do more to help people who want to quit smoking actually quit, and help people who want to smoke less actually smoke less. Unfortunately, a new bill in the Iowa legislature does the opposite. SF 638 aims to tax substitutes to cigarettes (i.e., e-cigarettes and tobacco free nicotine products). Despite rampant inaccurate information, these substitute products are undoubtedly safer than cigarettes. In fact, e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches have been identified as potential harm reduction tools and may support successful attempts to quit or reduce smoking.
What happens if we tax these less harmful substitutes? We know people respond to relative price changes. We know taxes increase the price for consumers. So, higher prices will reduce e-cigarette and nicotine pouch use (for some). But, because the price of cigarettes did not change, some people will substitute away from e-cigarettes or nicotine pouches to more harmful cigarettes. This is, quite literally, the opposite of what we should do as a state.
- Jason Semprini
