As Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, our focus this year has been on stopping the revolving door that allows career criminals to serve very little of their prescribed prison time and continually victimize their fellow citizens. The problem is created by too much judicial discretion that results in soft-on-crime judges allowing habitual offenders to go free, and our Department of Corrections that seems hellbent on releasing career criminals just as fast as they can, without regard to the right of victims to see justice served. In this edition of Freedom Watch, I will focus on House File 2542, a House Republican priority that I floor-managed and help write.
House File 2542 implements a “Three-and-Done” Strike System. If you choose a lifestyle of crime, you will be removed from society and incarcerated for at least 20 years.
This legislation creates a cumulative strike system for repeat offenders, triggering a mandatory minimum 20-year sentence without parole once a career criminal reaches three full strikes.
- 1 Full Strike: Any felony and specific violent aggravated misdemeanors (e.g., sexual abuse, domestic abuse, assault with the intent to cause serious injury or with a weapon, and organized retail theft).
- 0.5 Strike: All other aggravated misdemeanors and some serious misdemeanors, including those involving assault causing injury, domestic abuse causing injury, and criminal mischief third degree.
In conversations with County Attorneys and other interested parties, we amended the legislation so that crimes must be accumulated within a 20-year period to count; the crimes must be committed in separate instances; and we removed some crimes from the list that would qualify in the strike system. This point system will only be applied to crimes that occur after July 1, 2026, when the law would take effect.
Unfortunately, under our current law, repeat violent offenders are released back onto the streets where they become a risk to our children, our loved ones, and our friends and neighbors. By using “half-strikes” for slightly lesser crimes, plea bargains, deferred sentences and clear warnings, we give individuals plenty of grace and many opportunities to change their pattern of lawlessness. This is not about one mistake; it is about a proven pattern of dangerous behavior that demonstrates the individual is not interested in rehabilitation.
The tiered-strike system outlined in this bill is a common-sense, fair system that ensures that once an individual chooses a pattern of dangerous criminal behavior, they are removed from society and unable to continue to wreak havoc in our communities.
The initial fiscal note numbers that I have seen from the Department of Corrections were absurd and were based on outlandish conclusions. It is clear that because they do not like this legislation and the tough on crime approach, they went all out to create a fiscal note that cannot be taken seriously in its assumptions.
- It assumes that nothing will change, that there will be no deterrent factor and that the numbers will continue as usual. It ignores human nature, assuming zero people will change their behavior when faced with a 20-year mandatory minimum.
- It assumes building costs for new prisons that take no opportunity for innovation or renovation into account. In other words, it appears to assume the highest possible costs.
- The Victim Vs. The Perpetrator: The fiscal note focuses entirely on the cost of the criminal – the bed, the food, healthcare, while placing zero value on the victim. By considering a conservative value of $10 million for the life of an Iowan, we can see that the cost of not incarcerating career criminals is far higher, both monetarily and morally, than the cost of a prison cell.
- Research at Iowa State by Professor Matt De Lisi found that a single murder costs society over $17 million and that does not even count the personal and emotional loss. When you consider that many of the habitual offenders we are targeting commit multiple violent crimes, it is clear that putting them behind bars is money well spent.
- Beyond The Death Toll – Economic Disruption: Even if we look at only non-fatal crimes covered by this bill, the costs are massive. An Iowa State analysis shows that a rape costs society nearly $450,000. An armed robbery costs over $335,000. Again, the human toll must also be considered. This bill will help to stop the cycle before these costs multiply.
- The Department of Corrections chose Recidiviz, a company whose organizational DNA is fundamentally at odds with tough-on crime policies, to help them with their analysis. I find this very telling as to motive. This collaboration looks less like a neutral data finding and more like a mission to produce a poison pill fiscal note. House Republicans are not swallowing this pill.
Arkansas and Iowa have almost identical populations as of 2025 estimates. Arkansas has a population of 3,114,791 and Iowa 3,238,387. So, with Iowa having just over 100,000 more in population, consider this: Iowa’s prison population is 8,431, while the Arkansas prison population is 18,748. With almost the same population, Arkansas has more than double the prison population. Now, it is possible that Iowans behave better, but it is also possible and likely that Iowa needs to invest in public safety, build more prisons, and stop the revolving door by putting career criminals behind bars where they belong. Will it cost money? Of course it will, but what is the cost for continuing to allow the revolving door to create more victims at the hands of career criminals? Let us remember that a core function of government is public safety.
For the future victims who do not have to be victims, for the business owner who will not be robbed, for the young man who will not be shot, for the young woman who will not be raped or victimized, and for the young child who will not be abducted; for the crime that will not be, House File 2542 was written and should become law.
With seven Democrats in support, House File 2542 passed the House and now awaits action in the Senate. I hope that House File 2542 will become law so there will be less victims in Iowa. It will be money well spent in the administration of justice.
