The Revenue Estimating Conference met last Friday afternoon to revise their estimates for fiscal years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The meeting was one of the longer meetings in recent memory, as the panel held an extensive discussion on what they envision for state revenue numbers in Fiscal Year 2021. All three members of the REC emphasized that the new figures were subject to change, based on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak.
Fiscal Year 2020 – For the current fiscal year, the REC lowered the General Fund forecast. They set the current year’s revenue estimate to $7.9412 billion. This would be a 1.0 percent increase in state revenue over Fiscal Year 2019’s actual collections. The FY 2020 budget with the supplementals approved this year, spends $7.752 billion.
Fiscal Year 2021 – For the next budget year, the REC new estimates for General Fund revenue is $7.8766 billion. This amount is $360.1 million lower than the March estimate of $8.2367 billion. The new figure is also $64.6 million lower than what the REC set for the revised FY 2020 forecast, or a decline of 0.8 percent.
Fiscal Year 2022 – The panel also revised its forecast of state revenue in Fiscal Year 2022, the REC projected that General Fund revenue would be $8.1995 billion. This would be revenue growth of 4.1 percent or a $322.9 million increase over the current FY 21 projection.
Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Fund – The REC also projects gaming tax revenue, which funds the Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Fund. The panel is expecting gaming tax revenue in Fiscal Year 2020 to be $72.9 million lower than the March forecast. With this reduction the RIIF budget will be short of funds for the current fiscal year ending June 30. In Fiscal Year 2021, the REC projected that gaming tax revenue will be $25 million lower than what was projected in March.