By Ira Mehlman
FAIR
Preliminary data indicate that there were about 47,000 encounters along the Southwest border in December. Still considerably higher than the 1,000 a day that Jeh Johnson, who served as DHS secretary in the Obama administration, said would constitute a crisis, but a far cry from the 242,399 encounters recorded along the U.S.-Mexico border in December 2023.
President Joe Biden, whose full attention between now and January 20 is focused on defining his legacy, is taking credit for these precipitous declines in encounters of illegal aliens at the Southwest border over the past 12 months. But what the latest data show is how avoidable the raging border crisis that engulfed his administration and the country for much of the past four years really was.
Beginning early last year, President Biden, running for reelection with a clear understanding that his open-borders policies had become a political liability, reached out to then-Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), asking him to interdict the flood of migrants transiting his country on their way to the U.S. border. AMLO set the price tag for that cooperation at $20 billion in aid to Latin American nations along with more work visas for Mexican nationals.
It is not entirely clear what the final quid pro quo was, but Mexico did begin interdicting third country nationals heading north through Mexico and returning them to Mexico’s southern states under a policy dubbed El Carrusel, “the carousel.” The policy was predicated on the assumption that migrants would become discouraged and abandon their quest to reach the U.S. if they found themselves right back where they started. The immediate decrease in Southwest border encounters seems to indicate that the policy worked – and likely would have worked during the previous three years had the Biden administration really want to stem the flow of illegal aliens.
Then came the election of Donald Trump in November, who owed his victory in large part to his promise to secure our borders and deport illegal aliens. In addition to the carrot offered by the Biden administration to enlist Mexico’s cooperation in controlling the flow of migrants, Trump made it clear that he is also prepared to use a stick if Mexico does not increase its efforts to interdict migrants.
Shortly after his election, Trump warned. “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.” The president-elect added that the tariff will remain in place, “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! “
Mexico seems to have gotten the message. Between October 1 and December 26, Mexican authorities report that they had detained 475,000 illegal migrants headed to the U.S. border. And Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente recently announced at a press conference that Mexico has seen an 81 percent decline in the number of migrants arriving at the U.S. border. The unmistakable conclusion to be drawn is that migrants are not going to risk their lives, safety and whatever savings they might have to make the arduous journey to the border if they don’t believe they will be able to cross it.
After discussing mass migration with AMLO’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, President-elect Trump says the new Mexican administration has agreed to do more to deter and interdict illegal migrants once he assumes office. In fact, doing so may also serve Mexico’s interests. Besides avoiding being slapped with 25 percent tariffs by their largest trading partner, the Biden border crisis also further enriched the criminal cartels that pose a threat to the legitimate government of Mexico.
That is not to suggest that all will be smooth sailing once Trump is inaugurated. The Sheinbaum administration is not keen on the return of large numbers of Mexican nationals living illegally in the United States once Trump takes office. Her administration has announced that it is developing what they describe as a “panic button” phone app for Mexican illegal aliens who the Trump administration’s deportation push may target, as well has securing legal assistance to fight removal.
The news of sharp declines in illegal border crossings during Mr. Biden’s final few months in office is certainly welcome. But it is also infuriating. If he had not signaled that our borders were open and that migrants who crossed would almost certainly be released and, instead, adopted a carrot and stick approach with the Mexican government from the outset, the illegal migration crisis that has cost American lives and our economic well-being could have been avoided.
