I am surprised how many people tell me they do not think President Donald J. Trump will win the Republican nomination in 2024. Some of them are your typical Trump supporter. Others probably don’t like the man much at all.
And I often tell them all the same thing — there is no way President Trump loses the nomination. And if he does lose, the Democrats will win in 2024.
That seems to cause a confused look because the media narrative is that if Trump is the nominee, the Republicans will certainly lose the White House. But here’s the thing, the media does not want Trump to win the nomination. This tells me they aren’t convinced Trump will lose the general election, otherwise they would be pumping him up to win the nomination.
We know the media doesn’t want the Republican to win. So if Trump is a sure-fire loser, they’ll go all in for him.
But they’re not. In fact, look around and compare it to his 2016 run. The media is, for the most part, ignoring President Trump. When is the last time you heard directly from Trump on CNN or Fox News or MSNBC?
He doesn’t own the media cycle like he used to and the networks are in no hurry to give him a platform.
Most of the people I talk to say they will support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for President if he runs and they aren’t supporting Trump. I’m still not convinced DeSantis will run, and here’s why…
If DeSantis runs, he’d better win the nomination. If he challenges Trump, he will inevitably get into an ugly fight with Trump and alienate himself from the hardcore Trump supporters. If it goes how I envision it will go, a large chunk of Trump voters will not support DeSantis in 2028 if he runs for President then due to how ugly it gets in 2024.
So, if DeSantis runs, he’d better land the punch and win.
But even if he wins the nomination it will fracture the GOP. I know, I know…a Trump win fractures the GOP just as much if not more is the conventional thought. But I wouldn’t put it past Trump to mount a third-party challenge in 2024. He isn’t going to go down without a fight. I really don’t think he’ll lose the nomination, but if DeSantis challenges him and loses, and he and Trump spar like I expect they will, he runs the risk of not just losing in 2024 but falling out of favor with Trump loyalists who he will want on his side in 2028.
I know there are strong feelings against Trump among some people, but there are just as many people who will only support Trump as long as he’s a choice.
Look, I still don’t believe 2020 was a legitimate election. In fact, I don’t see anything that passes the eye test that suggests Joe Biden won 80 million-some votes. I think the Left knows they cheated and they underestimated just how much support Trump had/has and that is why in a handful of states they had to “stop counting” all at the same time and gather more votes.
I think they know that in 2024 they will not be able to cheat on the same scale necessary to beat Trump. Therefore they need someone else to be the nominee. And if they can fracture the GOP in the meantime, all the better.
A lot can change in six years, but the 2028 GOP nomination is going to belong to DeSantis. That changes if he runs in 2024. It’s a huge risk for America’s most popular governor.
Republicans will have to unify in order to win in 2024. And the media and Democrats will keep creating Trump crimes in an attempt to create competition for the nomination. If DeSantis runs, he may indeed challenge Trump. And that may open the door for a more moderate choice such as Mike Pence to try and gain traction. The hope would obviously be to see Trump and DeSantis split the conservative vote and sneak the moderate past both men.
I don’t think that’ll work, but it certainly seems like a moderate’s only hope in 2024.
I understand where people are coming from on every side of this. And I’m anxious to see where the chips fall. Unfortunately I think it is going to be bumpier than it needs to be. We’ll find out soon enough.