Leading up to 2020, it seems obvious the Democrats think of themselves as the party of diversity. Without identity politics, Democrats would have no politics at all.
Which takes us to the results of a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. The poll of 455 likely Democratic caucusgoers has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points and was conducted Dec. 10-13.
As much as diversity seems to be at the forefront of the Left, it isn’t when it comes to the voters on the Left. Thirty-two percent of those who responded said their choice for the Democrat nomination is former vice president, Joe Biden.
Or as the Left would say, and old white man.
Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) sits second behind Biden with 19 percent. Sanders, of course, is another old white man.
Biden would likely be the safest choice for Democrats. The former VP’s favorability rating among Iowa Democrats sits at 82 percent according to this poll.
Hillary Clinton, the 2016 nominee, has a favorability of just 46 percent among Iowa Democrats.
Beto O’Rourke, who recently lost a U.S. Senate election in Texas against Sen. Ted Cruz, came in third with 11 percent in the poll.
Perhaps the worst kept secret in Democrat politics during 2016 was the friction between those who were passionate Sanders supporters and the Hillary Clinton camp. President Donald Trump wasted little time in reaching out to voters who supported Sanders and may have felt disenfranchised due to the “super delegate” support Clinton capitalized on in the primary.
What impact that had on the election is unknown, but considering how close some states were, any split among Democrat voters in 2020 would go a long way to increase Trump’s chances of re-election.
Biden’s early advantage should come as no surprise. He has the experience, he has the name ID and it seems logical that Democrats would have the most confidence in him as serving as president on day one.
Three things need to be figured out first, though.
One, will the Democrat field be large in 2020? How confident are Democrats that Trump will lose re-election? If it seems certain, expect any Democrat with any presidential aspirations at all to test the waters.
Second, will there be an ‘outsider’ similar to Trump in the race? In a race that is packed with professional politicians, clearly a singular outsider candidate has an advantage.
Finally, how involved will former president Barack Obama be in 2020? It’s likely that only Hillary Clinton wants to see Trump lose re-election more than Obama, who spent eight years in the White House with Biden as his VP.
Bringing it full circle, Biden’s lack of appeal to the “diversity” crowd could be made up for if Obama would be willing to support his former No. 2.