Convention of States Action, in partnership with The Trafalgar Group—one of America’s most accurate pollsters in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021—is releasing the results of a new national survey. Results were from surveys conducted October th through October th of over 1,000 likely 2022 election voters.
“Our pollster Robert Cahaly is famous for having devised a method to ask voters what they themselves think by asking what their neighbors think, and we wanted to apply that principle to understanding how voters feel in the current climate. 60 percent of Independents appear to be breaking for Republicans in this poll, and interestingly that’s about the same number who are afraid to say who they’ll vote for,” said Mark Meckler, President of the Convention of States. “This indicates that the theory of the ‘submerged voter’–voters so concerned about people finding out who they voted for that pollsters cannot detect them–will come into play in this midterm in a major way.”
For complete details on the poll, including graphics, please visit:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.
KEY INSIGHT: Two-Thirds of Independents Believe Their Friends and Neighbors are Afraid to Say Who They Will Vote for in Midterms:
- 66.3 percent of Independent voters believe their friends and neighbors are afraid to express their views about who they will vote for in the 2022 midterm elections. 33.7 percent say their neighbors are not afraid.
- 51.4 percent of Republican voters believe their friends and neighbors are afraid to express their views about who they will vote for in the 2022 midterm elections. 48.6 percent say their neighbors are not afraid.
- 38.6 percent of Democratic voters believe their friends and neighbors are afraid to express their views about who they will vote for in the 2022 midterm elections. 61.4 percent say their neighbors are not afraid.
KEY INSIGHT: 60 Percent of Independents Believe Their Friends and Neighbors are Voting for Republicans in the 2022 Midterms:
- 60.1 percent of Independent voters believe their friends and neighbors will vote for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. 30.5 percent say their friends and neighbors will vote for Democrats.
- 92.6 percent of Republican voters believe their friends and neighbors will vote for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. 6.9 percent say their friends and neighbors will vote for Democrats.
- 27 percent of Democratic voters believe their friends and neighbors will vote for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. 70.1 percent say their friends and neighbors will vote for Democrats.
