From Saturday’s newsletter (sign up for our newsletter here or send your email address to [email protected]):
Good morning! This is my second-to-last newsletter prior to the election!
I don’t always provide the most positive message in my email newsletters. I prefer to share what I think you guys need to hear, not necessarily what you want to hear.
But today I bring good news! I went through the absentee voting numbers for every Iowa County by political party from 2020 and compared them to this year at the same point of the election. Republicans are completely dominating.
I’ll be publishing the numbers here at 10 a.m. this morning. But here are some counties I want to highlight:
In Dallas County, on the final Friday before Election Day, Democrats were ahead 13,331 to 10,440 absentee ballots submitted. But as of Friday, Republicans — yes, REPUBLICANS — hold an 8,659-8,442 advantage in absentee ballot submissions in Dallas County.
In Dubuque County, on the final Friday before Election Day, Democrats held nearly a 9,000-vote advantage in absentee ballots in 2020. This year, the deficit is less than 2,400 ballots.
In Black Hawk County, Democrats nearly doubled up the GOP in 2020, 19,939-10,277. As of yesterday, though, it’s less than a 2,500-vote difference.
In Cerro Gordo County, Democrats held a 5,619-3,505 advantage at this point in 2020. As of yesterday Democrats trail 3,100-3,038 this year.
In Clinton County, Democrats held a 2,051-vote advantage in 2020, but as of yesterday it’s just a 405-vote margin in favor of Democrats.
In Lee County, Democrats enjoyed an almost 2,300-vote edge in 2020. But that lead was just 307 as of yesterday.
Check out this list…it is counties Democrats “led” in in absentee ballot submissions at this point in 2020 but trail in 2024:
*Benton (Dems led by 282, but trail right now by 809)
*Boone (Dems led by 821 votes, but trail by 373 votes now)
*Bremer (Dems led by nearly 700 votes, now trail by 274)
*Buchanan (Dems led by nearly 800 votes, now trail by 140)
*Carroll (Dems led by 97 votes, now trail by almost 700)
*Cedar (Dems led by 251 votes, now trail by almost 400)
*Chickasaw (Dems led by 373 votes, now trail by almost 300 votes)
*Clayton (Dems led by 440 votes, now trail by almost 400 votes)
*Decatur (Dems led by 28 votes, now trail by 346 votes)
*Emmet (Dems led by 141 votes, now trail by 205 votes)
*Fayette (Dems led by 247 votes, now trail by 439 votes)
*Floyd (Dems led by 505 votes, now trail by 110 votes)
*Howard (Dems led by 316 votes, now trail by 49 votes)
*Jackson (Dems led by more than 1,100 votes, now trail by 140 votes)
*Jasper (Dems led by more than 1,600 votes, now trail by almost 300 votes)
*Jones (Dems led by about 260 votes, now trail by almost 400 votes)
*Marshall (Dems led by 1,029 votes, now trail by almost 600 votes)
*Muscatine (Dems led by more than 700 votes, now trail by 312 votes)
*Pottawattamie (Dems led by 28 votes, now trail by 1,721 votes)
*Tama (Dems led by 329 votes, now trail by 350 votes)
*Warren (Dems led by almost 1,900 votes, now trail by 603 votes)
*Webster (Dems led by 1,038 votes, now trail by 570 votes)
*Woodbury (Dems led by 230 votes, now trail by almost 1,600 votes)
*Worth (Dems led by 93 votes, now trail by 114 votes)
That is 26 counties where Democrats led at this point in absentee ballots received but Republicans do lead at this point in 2024!
Here is a list of counties that Republicans led in 2020 but now trail Democrats in 2024:
Yes, the answer is 0. Zero. Nada. None.
Obviously COVID voting protocols aren’t in play in 2024 and were in 2020. But this also likely shows two things — Republicans are making it more of a priority to vote early and Republicans are much more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats in 2024 in Iowa.
Now, what would an Iowa Standard newsletter be without a little “reality?” None of this guarantees victory. I mean, ask the Yankees about their 5-0 lead in Game 5 of the World Series. Ask the Atlanta Falcons about their 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.
So, first and foremost, if you have not yet voted but plan to on Election Day, you still need to. Even though the absentee ballots show Republicans doing remarkably well compared to 2020, do not take it for granted!
Remember how in Dallas County it is the Republicans with an advantage in absentee ballots turned in? Guess what, there are still more than 600 Republican absentee ballots that were requested in Dallas County that are not yet returned.
And, if most of these additional Republican absentee voters are just voters who decided to vote early rather than on Election Day and then be done, we really aren’t gaining anything. Is there one other person who shares your values and beliefs that you can help vote with a ride or remind to vote?
Is there one more thing you can do?
I like to think I do a lot leading up to elections. But I have never gotten to an Election Day where there wasn’t a part of me that thought “what if…” What if I had knocked on one more door? What if I had made one more phone call? What if I had talked with one more friend or neighbor?
I think that’s part of our nature. But here’s the deal. I’m not asking you to knock doors, make calls and talk with friends and neighbors. I’m asking you to do one more thing than you have done in the past. Maybe it’s a door. Maybe it’s a call. Maybe it’s a conversation. Maybe it’s a yard sign. Maybe it’s a last-second letter to the editor. Maybe it’s contacting a campaign and asking what you can do for them.
When we all decide to do one more thing, none of us has to do everything — we just all have to do something.
Nobody has been subjected to this campaign season longer than we have, friends — we’re Iowans. Don’t risk waking up on Wednesday asking yourself “what if.” Instead, know you can wake up Wednesday and feel good about your effort regardless of result.
If you do that, you’ll find the results a little easier to live with. And you will have a little more appreciation for your state, your country and your freedom!
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