Polling released Thursday by American Principles Project (APP) of voters in five critical swing states—Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in three of those states, though neither candidate’s lead was greater than 2 points.
The surveys of 600 likely voters in each state were conducted by SPRY Strategies from August 14-20 through landline and online mobile interviews, with a margin of error of 4 points. The state-by-state breakdowns were as follows:
- Arizona — Trump: 48.7%, Harris: 47.6%
- Georgia — Trump: 49.3%, Harris: 48.9%
- North Carolina — Trump: 47.4%, Harris: 47.2%
- Pennsylvania — Trump: 47.2%, Harris: 48.2%
- Wisconsin — Trump: 45.2%, Harris: 47.9%
The polling also measured voters’ opinions on a number of high-profile cultural issues. Some of those findings include:
- Women’s sports: Margin of support for a federal law banning biological males in women’s sports ranged from 25.9 to 34 points.
- Sex changes for minors: Margin of support for a federal law banning sex-change procedures for children under 18 ranged from 20.3 to 27.5 points.
- Parental notification: Margin of support for a federal law requiring schools to notify parents if their child identifies as transgender ranged from 18.9 to 28.2 points.
- Graphic content in schools: Margin of support for a federal law prohibiting elementary and middle schools from providing books with graphic sexual depictions to students ranged from 10 to 24.2 points.
- “Transgender sanctuary” laws: Margin of opposition to laws providing special legal protections for those who facilitate sex changes for minors ranged from 30.8 to 38.8 points.
- Age verification for adult sites: Margin of support for a federal law requiring adult websites to implement age verification to prevent underage access ranged from 56.4 to 65.4 points.
You can find the full results for the issue-related questions here.
APP President Terry Schilling released the following statement on the significance of the polling results:
“There are two major takeaways from these polls. First, the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is truly a toss-up. The winner of this election will be determined by a very small number of voters in a handful of crucial states, which means any campaign advantage is important.
“And second, Democrats’ extremism on cultural issues continues to be one of their biggest vulnerabilities. A strong majority of American voters do not believe that men should be competing in women’s sports, that kids should be encouraged to undergo sex changes, or that schools should be providing sexually explicit books to young students. Incredibly, Kamala Harris and the rest of her party have doubled down on these positions despite their enormous unpopularity. And it is now likely too late for them to turn back.
“Republicans cannot afford to ignore these issues in such a close race. Thankfully, Donald Trump has led the charge on calling out Democrats’ anti-family radicalism, and we encourage him to continue doing so from now until Election Day.”
